Bitcoin Holds Near $78,000 as Trump’s Hormuz Rhetoric Pushes Oil Above $100

Key Point

Bitcoin held near $78,000 on Friday as Brent crude rose to about $107 a barrel after President Donald Trump escalated rhetoric over the Strait of Hormuz. Bitcoin rose to $78,300 after briefly trading above $79,000 and extended its April recovery by roughly 15%. CryptoQuant data showed Thursday’s move from $76,351 to $79,447 was driven mainly by futures activity, with open interest rising from about $24.88 billion to nearly $28 billion. CryptoQuant data also showed Bitcoin short liquidations reached about $607.9 million, while Ether short liquidations totaled about $581 million. Greeks.live data showed 109,000 Bitcoin options expired Friday with a put-call ratio of 0.93 and a notional value of $8.55 billion.

Why it matters: A prolonged oil shock could keep inflation concerns elevated, which may support demand for scarce assets while also tightening financial conditions for risk markets.

Market Sentiment

Cautiously Bullish, Risk-off, Macro-driven, Volatile.

Reason: Bitcoin held near $78,000 as oil rose above $100 after Trump escalated rhetoric over the Strait of Hormuz.

Similar Past Cases

Energy shock events typically hit Bitcoin through two channels at once. Inflation fears can support the scarce-asset narrative, but tighter policy expectations and a firmer dollar often cap upside until spot demand broadens beyond derivatives. This episode differs because Bitcoin is holding up during the oil spike instead of selling off immediately, so the key test is whether cash buyers confirm the move.

Ripple Effect

A longer disruption in the Strait of Hormuz could keep oil elevated and reinforce inflation concerns across risk assets. That channel could help Bitcoin’s hard-asset appeal, but that channel could also strengthen the dollar and pressure liquidity. If Bitcoin keeps holding near recent levels while oil stays high, the market may read that as stronger underlying demand. If spot demand does not follow the futures-led move, the rally could fade once forced buying slows.

Opportunities & Risks

Opportunities: If Bitcoin holds above $78,000 and spot buyers confirm the breakout after the futures-led squeeze, that is a potential continuation signal. A cleaner move through $80,000 would show that macro pressure is not stopping demand.

Risks: If oil keeps rising and the dollar stays firm into the Federal Reserve’s next policy meeting, reducing exposure can limit downside from tighter financial conditions. If the rally loses support once forced buying slows, a failed push through $80,000 could signal renewed pullback risk.